U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened to launch strikes against Iran if Iranian authorities killed protesters who began demonstrating in December, urging the demonstrators to continue their protests by stating that “help is on the way.” However, the Iranian authorities ignored these threats, killed a large number of protesters, and largely suppressed the demonstrations.
There were certain diplomatic contacts between the United States and Iran, after which Trump stated that Iran had canceled the execution of 800 protesters and even expressed gratitude for this step. It appears that, at least at this stage, Trump has significantly lowered his demands.
A number of observers have compared these events to the famous “red line” that Barack Obama once drew to deter Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from using chemical weapons. It should be recalled that the Syrian government ignored Obama’s threats at the time and went on to use chemical weapons.
At present, following the subsiding of protests in Iran and President Trump portraying the prevention of the execution of 800 Iranians as a success, the risk of war appears to have decreased at first glance. However, both Khamenei and Trump exchanged harsh accusations against each other on January 17. Trump stated that Iran’s leadership must be changed.
In addition, reports have begun to circulate that the United States is deploying troops to the region. The U.S. Navy strike group led by the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is expected to arrive in the region around January 25. At the same time, the U.S. Air Force has deployed a squadron of F-15 fighter jets to Jordan.
It can be assumed that the main reason the United States did not carry out strikes during the most active phase of the protests was the lack of sufficient military forces in the region at that time. Most importantly, it remains unclear whether, in the event of U.S. intervention in Iran, Washington would prefer a scenario involving merely a change of leadership, as in Venezuela, or a full-scale regime change.
The Daily Baku Editorial Team
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