Turkish political scientist: Peace agreement is ready, but serious political bargaining is underway on crucial details

The peace plan being discussed around Ukraine has essentially taken shape, but final agreements on key issues have not yet been reached, Turkish political scientist Engin Ozer said in an interview with The Daily Baku.

According to him, the main points of contention are concentrated in three areas: at what stage and by what mechanism the sanctions imposed on Russia will be lifted, the fate of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, and the future fate of frozen financial assets belonging to Russia.

“The Zaporozhye NPP issue is of critical importance in terms of Ukraine’s energy security. The parties are conducting cautious but progress-oriented negotiations on this issue. Another key issue is Russian assets held in Europe, especially in Belgian banks. Currently, these assets are the main tool of pressure on Moscow,” the political scientist emphasized.

Engin Ozer noted that according to one of the scenarios, if Ukraine agrees to certain concessions in the Donbass region, Russian assets in Europe can be released and sanctions can be lifted in stages. Otherwise, that is, if the conflict remains in a “frozen” format, the redirection of these funds to the restoration of Ukraine will be on the agenda.

According to the expert, at the current stage, the main process is taking place between the US and Russia, and Europe is actually in the background in these negotiations: “The security architecture is actually being formed by Washington and Moscow. Europe plays a more decorative role in this process.”

Engin Ozer believes that the emerging model is reminiscent of the Korean scenario - that is, not complete peace, but a long-term frozen conflict.

The political scientist emphasized that this model does not promise long-term stability and may create the basis for new political tensions in the near future.

According to the political scientist, against the background of all these processes, the main contours of the agreement have already been formed, and final decisions may be announced within the next month.