Turkish expert: The key condition for stability in the South Caucasus is that Armenia make independent decisions free from external influence

“The Daily Baku” reports that Turkish political analyst Emre Diner said this while commenting on the current state of Azerbaijan–Armenia relations and regional geopolitical developments.

According to the expert, Azerbaijan’s victory in the 44-day Patriotic War changed the entire balance of power in the South Caucasus. France, India, Iran and, in certain cases, the European Union had for many years tried to preserve their leverage in the region by arming and politically supporting Armenia: “These countries used Armenia for their own interests and tried to keep it in confrontation with Azerbaijan. The goal was to retain control over the South Caucasus. However, this policy has failed.”

Emre Diner noted that landlocked Armenia relied for many years on the “Hai-Taht” doctrine, built on territorial claims against its neighbors, in order to compensate for its geopolitical limitations. According to him, this approach not only undermined stability in the region but also led Yerevan into economic and political deadlock.

“After the 44-day war, the situation changed. Azerbaijan has become the leading power in the region, and Armenia is now compelled to accept this reality. Yerevan understands that remaining outside the normalization process with Azerbaijan and Türkiye will further deepen its economic and political isolation,” the political analyst stated.

The expert stressed that the rapprochement between Azerbaijan and Armenia worries a number of countries, particularly Iran and Russia, because this process weakens their influence in the region. At the same time, the Armenian diaspora in the United States also opposes the Pashinyan government’s attempts at normalization, which creates additional obstacles.

Emre Diner said that changing the provisions of Armenia’s Constitution that contradict Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity is one of the key conditions of the peace treaty, and Baku will not back down from this position.

In his view, normalization between Türkiye and Armenia is of strategic importance not only for the two countries but for the entire South Caucasus:

“The success of this process must be aligned with Azerbaijan’s interests and take regional balances into account. Full coordination between Ankara and Baku is essential for diplomatic efforts to yield results.”

The expert added that the European Union also sees Azerbaijan as a key partner in terms of energy security, and Baku successfully uses this advantage as a diplomatic tool. In this regard, the messages delivered by President Ilham Aliyev concerning Europe’s energy security are of great significance.

According to Emre Diner, the information war is also an integral part of the process, and regional mechanisms must be established to counter disinformation aimed against peace.

“Sustainable peace in the South Caucasus is only possible if Armenia makes decisions free from external influence and builds its relations with its neighbors on the basis of reality,” the political analyst concluded.