Political analyst: Military escalation around Iran could also pose direct risks for the South Caucasus

Iran’s ballistic missile program remains one of the main issues of concern for the United States. At the same time, Tehran’s support for various proxy forces in the Middle East continues to deepen disagreements between the sides. It is precisely these three areas – ballistic missiles, the nuclear program, and instruments of regional influence – on which the parties have still failed to reach a common position.

These views were shared with The Daily Baku by political analyst Metin Mammadli, chief adviser to the board of the BMTM.

Mammadli noted that despite all these contradictions, negotiations between the United States and Iran have not completely stopped, and that certain diplomatic contacts continue, particularly with the mediation of countries in the region. However, according to the expert, if no agreement is reached on the nuclear program, the possibility of a U.S. military strike against Iran cannot be ruled out.

“If such a confrontation occurs, Iran targeting U.S. military bases in the region could be considered a realistic scenario. Iran possesses a sufficiently strong ballistic missile arsenal, particularly in terms of medium range capabilities, and these capacities could put U.S. military facilities located in the Middle East, as well as the territories of U.S. allies, at potential risk,” he said.

According to Mammadli, the outbreak of a large scale conflict in the region would create serious political and security risks, and these risks would not be limited to the Middle East alone. Given the factor of geographical proximity, such an escalation could also create additional security challenges for the South Caucasus, including Azerbaijan.

The expert emphasized that for this reason, countries of the region, including Azerbaijan, are not interested in a possible military escalation around Iran.

“The position of official Baku is clear: existing problems must be resolved exclusively through negotiations and diplomatic means. It is no coincidence that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan has clearly conveyed Azerbaijan’s position in contacts with the Iranian side, stating that Azerbaijan will under no circumstances allow its territory to be used by third parties against Iran.”

Mammadli added that this approach is an integral part of Azerbaijan’s balanced foreign policy pursued for many years and remains unchanged. In his view, a large scale war would not only create political and military threats, but could also lead to serious demographic problems. “Millions of Azerbaijanis live in Iran, and in the event of a major confrontation, one of the main countries they could turn to for safety would be Azerbaijan,” the political analyst stressed.

In conclusion, the expert stated that all these factors show that resolving the crisis around Iran not by military means, but through negotiations and diplomatic mechanisms, is the most optimal path for regional stability and security.