Pakistani expert: The Middle Corridor is the foundation of a new economic order in Eurasia

At a time when global trade routes are being reshaped and traditional transport corridors are facing increasing risks, the growing strategic weight of the Middle Corridor is creating new economic and geopolitical opportunities for the region. In this context, Azerbaijan’s role and the potential impact of regional peace on connectivity attract particular attention.

Asef Muhammad Noor, founder of the Institute for Peace and Diplomatic Studies of Pakistan, economic analyst and political scientist, told The Daily Baku that the rise of the Middle Corridor is not merely an infrastructure project but a clear indicator of the restructuring of the global trade system.

According to him, the geopolitical realities that emerged after 2022 – the disruption of northern routes due to the war in Ukraine, rising security risks in the Red Sea, and the fragility of maritime straits – have forced global companies to seriously reconsider the resilience of their supply chains. “In these circumstances, the Middle Corridor has evolved from being an alternative route into a strategic choice,” the expert emphasized.

Asef Muhammad Noor noted that in recent months, at the Munich Security Conference as well as during the “Peace Bridge” discussions held in Tsakhkadzor with the participation of Azerbaijani and Armenian civil society representatives, the Middle Corridor has already been assessed as part of a broader Eurasian stability framework. “The key advantage of this route is its resilience. Amid sanctions, regional conflicts and geopolitical competition, diversification of trade is of vital importance,” he said.

According to the expert, the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, bypasses both Russia and Iran, offering a relatively stable land alternative via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan and onward to Europe. Currently, transit time along the Xi’an–Baku route ranges between 11 and 16 days. According to January 2026 data, the average transit time stood at 16 days, and more than 400 block trains operated along the route in 2025.

Asef Muhammad Noor stated that freight volumes are growing rapidly. Between 2022 and 2026, cargo transported via Kazakhstan increased fourfold, reaching 4.1 million tons in 2025. The allocation of 12 billion euros to the region under the European Union’s Global Gateway initiative, including 3 billion euros for transport infrastructure, as well as a 150 million dollar loan from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank for the Almaty Railway Bypass project, demonstrate growing international interest in the Middle Corridor.

The expert stressed that Azerbaijan plays a central role in this process. According to him, the expansion of the Port of Alat and the modernization of the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway are turning the country into a regional connectivity hub. “The Middle Corridor is no longer just physical infrastructure. Digital customs systems, AI-based logistics solutions, and projects such as the Caspian–Black Sea energy cable are transforming this route into a green and digital trade artery,” he added.

Asef Muhammad Noor also stated that sustainable peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan could further accelerate this transformation. The TRIPP initiative, discussed in Washington in August 2025 and reflected in the February 2026 US–Azerbaijan Strategic Partnership Charter, envisages a 43-kilometer connection via Syunik. “If implemented, this project could ensure uninterrupted connectivity through railways, highways, pipelines and fiber-optic lines,” the expert noted.

In his view, this process could increase intra-regional trade by 20 to 30 percent. Confidence-building steps are already being observed: in December 2025, gasoline exports from Azerbaijan to Armenia via Georgia were carried out, transit restrictions were lifted, and no border incidents have been recorded since August 2025.

In conclusion, the expert stated that in the next phase, investments in Caspian ports, expansion of digital customs platforms, risk mitigation through European financial instruments, and security mechanisms at sensitive points will ensure the sustainable development of the Middle Corridor. “If these elements come together, the Middle Corridor could become the main pillar of Caucasus–Central Asia connectivity, strengthen Azerbaijan’s regional middle-power status, and contribute to the formation of a more stable and interdependent economic order across Eurasia,” Asef Muhammad Noor emphasized.