Israeli political analyst: US–Iran confrontation is already moving toward an inevitable military scenario

Rising tensions between the United States, Iran, and Israel have moved beyond mere diplomatic rhetoric and entered a strategic phase that raises the real possibility of a military clash.

Israeli political analyst Mikhail Finkel stated this in an interview with The Daily Baku.

According to him, recent military preparations in the region indicate that a war scenario is being seriously considered.

“The deployment by the United States of a large-scale military force to the Middle East, including aircraft carriers and F-35, F-15, and F-16 fighter jets, is not a random move.
Such a massive military presence requires enormous financial resources. Donald Trump is a politician with a business mindset, and such expenditures are never made without a reason. All this points to an intention to deliver a decisive blow against the Iranian leadership and achieve regime change,” the analyst emphasized.

Mikhail Finkel noted that the increasingly tough stance of Western countries toward Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) can also be seen as part of this process. “The European Union’s recognition of the IRGC as a terrorist organization and the United Kingdom’s work toward a similar step indicate that the international environment is shifting toward a much harder line. This is one of the factors strengthening the political foundations for possible military operations,” he said.

The analyst recalled that the demands presented to Iran by the United States, including abandoning high-level uranium enrichment, halting the restoration of damaged nuclear facilities, dismantling the ballistic missile program, and ending domestic repression, have been rejected by Tehran.

“In such a situation, war emerges as an alternative scenario. If military operations begin, Iran will not limit itself to targeting US bases alone. It may attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, strike Israel, and try to create maximum chaos throughout the Middle East,” he said.

According to Finkel, one of Iran’s main directions of attack would be Israel. “Hostility toward Israel occupies a special place in the ideological doctrine of the Iranian leadership. Therefore, the likelihood that most attacks would be directed at Israel is high. However, Israel is prepared for such a scenario.”

The analyst noted that Israel possesses a multi-layered air defense system, including next-generation tools based on laser technologies, and has strengthened its defensive capabilities in coordination with its allies. “The United States, the United Kingdom, France, and several Arab countries could support Israel in intercepting possible missile and drone attacks. In addition, around 150 modernized Israeli Air Force combat aircraft, equipped with domestically developed electronics, are on full combat readiness,” he said.

Mikhail Finkel believes that the primary objective of a possible war could be a change in Iran’s political system. “The strategy is to transform Iran into a more predictable state open to international cooperation. If such a transformation occurs, the country’s energy resources, especially its gas reserves, could be supplied to the European market, and projects such as the previously planned Nabucco pipeline could return to the agenda,” he said.

The analyst added that the international community has long been concerned about the risks posed by Iran’s nuclear program and regional policies. “The world no longer wants to live under a constant sense of threat. Against the backdrop of the weakening of several authoritarian regimes in recent years, the possibility that Iran may also change is being discussed. In this sense, the coming period could be decisive.”

In conclusion, Mikhail Finkel stated that developments in the region are accelerating and that the realization of a military scenario in the near term cannot be ruled out.
“The dynamics of the processes show that the confrontation has entered a critical phase. For this reason, the coming days and even hours could be decisive for international security,” he said.