Iran’s military dictatorship has chosen the path of regional escalation

Even after Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian announced yesterday - March 7, 2026 - that the Interim Leadership Council had ordered the armed forces to stop attacks on neighboring countries and apologized for the attacks carried out so far, Iran continues its attacks on neighboring states. It should be recalled that after the killing of Iran’s Supreme Religious Leader, until a new leader is elected, the powers of the head of state are exercised by the Interim Leadership Council, which consists of the president, the chief justice, and a cleric.

After the video address released by Masoud Pezeşkian yesterday morning, conservative circles criticized him.

Shortly afterward, a long interview with Ali Larijani, the Secretary of the Security Council - who, it is said, had been appointed by the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as his temporary successor and who is effectively providing political leadership for the country - was aired. In the interview, Larijani stated that Iran’s resistance against the United States and Israel would continue. He also expressed his position regarding Azerbaijan. Considering the importance of the topic, we present that part of the interview verbatim:

“For example, if a drone went and struck in a country like Azerbaijan, it has nothing to do with us at all. We have told them and also told you that it was not our doing. But I think Israel is plotting in this matter; it wants to get some countries to clash with us. We have nothing to do with it—what does Azerbaijan have to do with us anyway? Of course, if any of these countries conspire against us and launch flights against us, we will respond to them.”

At almost the same time, the Telegram channel of Iran’s state broadcasting company (IRIB) published the following threatening statement regarding Azerbaijan by the Unified Operational Command of Iran’s Armed Forces (“Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters”):

“The armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, despite being heavily engaged in battles against American and Zionist aggressors in the region, have made every effort to ensure that no harm comes to the national security and interests of friendly, neighboring, and Muslim countries.

We announce to the neighboring country of Iran, the Republic of Azerbaijan, as a Muslim country, that in order to prevent the spread of insecurity in the region, it should expel the Zionists from its territory and not endanger the security of its own people and that of the Islamic Republic of Iran”.

The Unified Operational Command (“Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters”) is the single wartime command that directs the operations of Iran’s two types of armed forces - the Islamic Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular army (Artesh). Iran’s military operations are currently being directed by this headquarters. The heads of this command are usually representatives of the IRGC. The command’s statement of March 7, 2026 concerning Azerbaijan proves that Iran’s combat command considers Azerbaijan among its targets. Essentially, this is a confirmation that the attack on Nakhchivan on March 5, 2026 was carried out by Iran.

Analysis of yesterday’s events shows that real power in Iran is effectively in the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. They are ignoring attempts by the country’s political forces to prevent escalation and do not intend to stop attacks on neighboring states.

The Daily Baku editorial board.