Expert: U.S.–Iran tensions pose serious risks for the region

The escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran turning into a military confrontation could have a seriously negative impact on regional security.

This was stated by Javid Valiyev, a member of the Board of the Center for Analysis of International Relations (CAIR), in his comments to The Daily Baku.

According to him, one of the biggest challenges for regional states in such a scenario would be pressure to choose sides: “Of course, if a military confrontation occurs, both the United States and Iran will increase political pressure on countries in the region in an attempt to define their positions. This could create additional tension and limit the foreign policy maneuvering space of states.”

The expert noted that a possible military intervention would not be limited to the direct parties to the conflict but could also affect countries with which regional states maintain relations: “The United States threatens to strike Iran, while Iran, in response, states that it could target U.S. military bases in the region. Many of these bases are located in Middle Eastern countries with which Azerbaijan maintains good relations.”

Javid Valiyev emphasized that the humanitarian and economic consequences of a potential war could also be severe: “Factors such as refugee flows, impacts on energy resources, disruptions to transport routes, and the weakening of trade relations could create serious problems for the region. Moreover, it is expected that this war could be more complex and destructive, potentially leading to unforeseen negative consequences.”

The political analyst stated that Azerbaijan’s main priority is preserving stability in the region: “We support lasting stability in the region and do not want war. Maintaining balance, especially in the South Caucasus, has always been a priority in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy. The disruption of this balance could result in the dominance of a particular power and negatively affect the sovereignty of smaller states and their ability to pursue an independent foreign policy.”

He added that relations with Azerbaijan’s main ally, Türkiye, are of particular importance in this context: “The Shusha Declaration signed with the Republic of Türkiye is strategically very important. Nevertheless, any shift in the regional balance against one side could lead to undesirable outcomes. For this reason, preserving the existing balance is extremely important.”

Javid Valiyev also expressed optimism regarding Türkiye’s possible mediation role: “If Ankara puts forward a mediation initiative in this process and this intention is genuine, the likelihood of success would be high. We see that there is significant trust in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan within the United States, particularly in Donald Trump’s political approach. Türkiye has also been observed to play certain roles in the Syria and Gaza issues.”

The expert believes that constructive proposals that could be put forward by Türkiye may also be accepted by Washington: “Positive initiatives and diplomatic steps regarding Iran could yield favorable results. In this sense, Türkiye’s mediation could contribute to reducing tensions.”