Dr. Mammadli from Azerbaijan’s top think tank: VP Vance’s visit reflects growing US interest in the region

The visit of United States Vice President J.D. Vance to the South Caucasus can be regarded as an important diplomatic step aimed at advancing the agenda stemming from the agreements reached in Washington on August 8 last year. At that meeting, key agreements were achieved between the United States, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, covering both the peace process and the TRIPP project, which envisages the opening of logistics lines and communication routes in the region.

These views were shared with The Daily Baku by Metin Mammadli, political analyst and senior adviser to the Board of the Air Centre, the leading Azerbaijani think tank. 

According to him, one of the main objectives of the vice president’s visit may be to discuss the implementation mechanisms of these agreements and to ensure the continuity of the process.

“Overall, during the Donald Trump administration, the United States has been observed to pursue a more active policy both in the South Caucasus and in Central Asia, and this visit is also assessed as an indication of Washington’s intention to strengthen its positions in the region.

It is well known that quite complex geopolitical processes are currently unfolding in the post-Soviet space and in neighboring regions. In such circumstances, the visit of a high-ranking representative of a global actor like the United States cannot be considered accidental. On the contrary, the main objective of this step is to expand U.S. influence in regions of strategic importance and to consolidate its positions amid new geopolitical realities.”

According to Mammadli, following the Washington summit, the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia has effectively entered a new phase. At present, there is no armed confrontation between the two countries, and relative stability prevails in the region. Nevertheless, a final peace treaty has not yet been signed. One of the main obstacles to this process is the presence of provisions in Armenia’s Constitution that contain territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

The political analyst emphasized that Azerbaijan’s principled position is that, for sustainable peace to be ensured, Armenia must eliminate these legal contradictions. In his view, the Armenian authorities plan to raise the adoption of a new constitution after the upcoming elections, and in this context, J.D. Vance’s visit could also have a certain impact on the internal political processes in Armenia.

Metin Mammadli added that J.D. Vance is considered the second highest political figure in the United States, and in recent years no official of this level has visited the region. This fact in itself is a clear indication of the United States’ growing interest in the South Caucasus.

In his assessment, the vice president’s visit should not be viewed solely within the framework of diplomatic contacts. It can also be regarded as confirmation of the United States’ intention to maintain a long-term strategic presence in the region, once again highlighting the increasing role of the South Caucasus on the global political agenda.