Ali Fuad Gökçə: The energy struggle is changing, but hydrocarbons are still at the center of the game

In the modern world, energy policies are rapidly diversifying, and this process is shaping a new dimension of competition among global powers,  Turkish expert, Professor Ali Fuad Gökçə of Gaziantep University in Türkiye,  told The Daily Baku.

According to him, from a historical perspective, it is clear that the First World War was fought over coal, while the Second World War was largely fought over control of hydrocarbon energy resources. In this sense, possession of energy resources remains a key strategic factor that determines the fate of states.

The new stage of global competition today is forming around critical minerals and rare earth elements. Competition for control over these resources among the United States, China, and other major powers is becoming increasingly visible. This shows that the importance of hydrocarbon energy is by no means diminishing.

Ali Fuad Gökçə emphasized that although critical minerals and rare earth elements carry strategic importance in themselves, their transformation into industrial products requires high-technology production systems, and the functioning of these systems depends precisely on hydrocarbon energy sources such as oil and natural gas. This reality demonstrates that hydrocarbon energy will continue to play a central role in the global energy balance for a long time to come.

In this context, Azerbaijan’s rich oil and gas reserves elevate the country to a special position on the regional and global energy map. According to Ali Fuad Gökçə, the energy shortage observed on the European continent places European states in a more dependent strategic position. Despite the availability of financial resources, the limitation of energy supplies narrows the independent decision-making capabilities of European countries.

The expert noted that, in the long term, Europe is seeking partners that are politically stable, rich in hydrocarbon resources, and capable of reliably meeting its energy needs. In this respect, Azerbaijan fully corresponds to Europe’s strategic energy objectives.

Ali Fuad Gökçə particularly described the delivery of Azerbaijani gas to European markets via Türkiye as a clear example of coordinated and strategic cooperation between the two brotherly countries. According to him, this cooperation demonstrates that by acting together, Türkiye and Azerbaijan have become important energy and security actors for Europe.

The expert stressed that the recent changes observed in the policies of both Türkiye and Azerbaijan should be analyzed particularly from the perspective of energy security and military security. Against the background of these processes, the main risk lies in attempts to create differences of opinion between the two brotherly states.

Ali Fuad Gökçə stated that one of the mechanisms most frequently used by imperialist powers throughout history has been the policy of “divide, fragment and rule”, and from this point of view, preserving the strategic solidarity between Türkiye and Azerbaijan is of decisive importance for regional stability.