ADB: Azerbaijan's economy will grow by an average of 1.9% in 2026-2027

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects Azerbaijan's GDP to increase by 2% in 2026 and by 1.8% in 2027, according to the ADB's Asian Development Outlook for April.

The forecast for Azerbaijan's economic growth in 2026 has not changed compared to the September estimate, while the figure for 2027 has been presented by the bank for the first time. Thus, the average annual GDP growth rate of the republic for the 2026-2027 period is estimated at 1.9%.

The slowdown in growth compared to the previous year will occur against the backdrop of declining oil production, the ADB states.

According to the bank's estimates, the agricultural sector will show growth of 1.4% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, while industrial production will increase by only 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

The state budget deficit is expected to be at the level of 2.2% of GDP in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, says the report.

In 2026, transfers from the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) will amount to 9.3% of GDP, while state budget expenditures will reach 30.3% of GDP, of which 10.2% will account for public capital investments," the ADB notes.

It should be recalled that Azerbaijan's Ministry of Economy forecasts GDP growth in 2026 at the level of 2.9%, in 2027 at 3.3%, while the Central Bank expects the country's economic growth at the level of 2.4% in the current year and 2.9% in 2027.

Estimates from international rating agencies vary: S&P Global expects growth in 2026 at the level of 2%, Fitch Ratings at 2.5%, Moody's at 2.5%, and the IMF at 2.1%.

The largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING Group, forecasts Azerbaijan's economic growth at the level of 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts 2% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.

According to World Bank forecasts, Azerbaijan's GDP growth rate will be 2% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.

According to UN estimates, Azerbaijan's economic growth will be 2.7% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027.

According to Fitch Solutions' expectations, Azerbaijan's real GDP growth in 2026 will be 2.5%.

In 2025, Azerbaijan's economy grew by 1.4%.